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The prosecutorís fallacy


Richard Lindzen, Seminar at the House of Commons Committee [PDF - slide 20] - London, 22-02-2012.


When it comes to unusual climate (which always occurs some place), most claims of evidence for global warming are guilty of the Ďprosecutorís fallacy.í For example this confuses the near certainty of the fact that if A shoots B, there will be evidence of gunpowder on Aís hand with the assertion that if C has evidence of gunpowder on his hands then C shot B.

However, with global warming the line of argument is even sillier. It generally amounts to something like if A kicked up some dirt, leaving an indentation in the ground into which a rock fell and B tripped on this rock and bumped into C who was carrying a carton of eggs which fell and broke, then if some broken eggs were found it showed that A had kicked up some dirt. These days we go even further, and decide that the best way to prevent broken eggs is to ban dirt kicking.



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